NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:In stunning decision, Tennessee Titans fire coach Mike Vrabel after six seasons

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterTennessee Titans fired coach Mike Vrabel in a stunning move Tuesday that kicks off what should be a substantial rebuild for the franchise.

Vrabel led the Titans for six seasons, compiling a 54-45 record during his tenure. He led Tennessee to three consecutive playoff appearances from 2019-21, including a trip to the AFC championship game in the 2019 season.

But after earning the top seed in the conference in 2021 – when Vrabel was named the NFL's Coach of the Year - the Titans fell in the divisional round to the eventual AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals. From that point on, the team would struggle to find its footing. A 7-10 campaign in 2022 was followed by a 6-11 mark this season. The losing campaigns were the franchise's first since 2015.

"Earlier today, I spoke with Mike Vrabel and told him about my decision to make a change at head coach," Titans controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk said in a statement. "As I told Coach Vrabel, this decision was as difficult as any I've made as Controlling Owner. I appreciate Mike's contributions to the Tennessee Titans both on and off the field. Anyone who has ever met him knows how passionate and genuine he is, and he's been a strong supporter of the Nashville community. We wish Mike, Jen, and the Vrabel family nothing but the best in the future."

Strunk pointed to a desire to create more cohesion with general manager Ran Carthon, who the team brought in last year to replace Jon Robinson.

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"As the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions," Strunk said. "Last year, we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan. As I continued to assess the state of our team, I arrived at the conclusion that the team would also benefit from the fresh approach and perspective of a new coaching staff."

Why Titans didn't trade Mike Vrabel

With an established track record as a head coach, Vrabel immediately becomes an intriguing option for the five other franchises with openings.

In a video interview with the team's in-house media operation, Adams Strunk acknowledged she did consider attempting to trade Vrabel to another team, but there were several complications that dissuaded her from pursuing a deal.

"At the end of the day, with league rules the way they are, it would have maybe put us back three weeks," Adams Strunk said. "To get the right head coach, I was just not willing to go to the back of the line and take a chance of missing out on someone we really wanted."

Tennessee Titans' rebuild ahead

Tennessee is poised for more splits from significant figures this offseason under Carthon's direction. Four-time Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry thanked fans in the regular-season finale in a possible farewell, as he is headed for free agency and appears unlikely to return. Longtime starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who was benched for rookie Will Levis midway through the year, also seems set to move on.

Vrabel's firing caught Henry by surprise.

"Wow. Wow. I'm shocked," Henry told The Athletic's Dianna Russini. "Coach Vrabel is a leader of men. He is a great coach and teacher. I know he will get another opportunity right away. I look forward to it."